In short, it would be a disaster. Unfortunately unless the current political climate cools we are quickly heading in that direction. This wouldn’t be the type of conflict we have grown accustomed to over the past two decades. Casualties would be severe, acts of terror would sky rocket, and a draft would be all but certain. A war with Iran wouldn’t just be us against them either, it would quickly escalate into a regional conflict that would no doubt involve Israel, Syria, and possibly Saudi Arabia. It would be a no win situation for the United States. The aftermath of such a conflict would destroy what's left of our credibility in the Middle East for generations, and Osama Bin Laden would be completely justified in the eyes of the Arab world.
Analysts agree that if a conflict with Iran becomes a reality the US and Israel would launch a massive air campaign dwarfing any bombardment in the Iraqi and Afghanistan wars. The first targets would no doubt be nuclear facilities, although US intelligence is terrible on where and or how deep these installations are. No doubt this would lead to huge civilian casualties which would embolden the Iranian population to fight. Iranian defense planners have stated publicly that they have learned from the cases of neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. They are acutely aware of the U.S. military’s heavy reliance on aerial strikes and have planned accordingly for just such an attack. And unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran does have a competent Air Force.
Israels conflict with Lebanon last summer was a preview of the type of rocket melees we could expect. This time we wouldn't be talking about Hamas and their home made rockets though, we would be talking about return fire from highly sophisticated Iranian rockets that would not only be raining on Tel Aviv, but also on the Green Zone in Baghdad. It is not out of the question that some of the Israeli return fire rockets could be tipped with tactical nuclear missiles, especially if Israel is on the brink of collapse.
While US forces would most likely not initially invade Iranian territory, Iran would no doubt invade Iraq. The 150,000 US troops scattered across the country would be up against a wall, and an escalation to approximately 500,000 combat troops would be necessary. The problem is that the US does not have that many fit for duty units...so...hello selective service.
If this scenario were to happen it is certain that suicide bombers would find their way to the streets of major American cities. It would be a severe psychological blow to a population that is used to seeing war only through a TV screen, and not as a daily reality.
Oil prices would sky rocket if such a regional conflict were to take place, most likely leading to a global economic crisis. Particularly if oil wells are targeted (which they most certainly will be) the price of a barrel of oil could triple (not to mention the environmental tragedy).
So how realistic is this scenario? Put it this way, we have already dispatched an additional carrier group to the region, the Iranian's have been preparing with war games, and uranium enrichment talks are falling apart. With this latest news regarding the capture of 15 British sailors, I would put the chances of conflict at about 40 / 60......and that is downright terrifying.
Analysts agree that if a conflict with Iran becomes a reality the US and Israel would launch a massive air campaign dwarfing any bombardment in the Iraqi and Afghanistan wars. The first targets would no doubt be nuclear facilities, although US intelligence is terrible on where and or how deep these installations are. No doubt this would lead to huge civilian casualties which would embolden the Iranian population to fight. Iranian defense planners have stated publicly that they have learned from the cases of neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. They are acutely aware of the U.S. military’s heavy reliance on aerial strikes and have planned accordingly for just such an attack. And unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran does have a competent Air Force.
Israels conflict with Lebanon last summer was a preview of the type of rocket melees we could expect. This time we wouldn't be talking about Hamas and their home made rockets though, we would be talking about return fire from highly sophisticated Iranian rockets that would not only be raining on Tel Aviv, but also on the Green Zone in Baghdad. It is not out of the question that some of the Israeli return fire rockets could be tipped with tactical nuclear missiles, especially if Israel is on the brink of collapse.
While US forces would most likely not initially invade Iranian territory, Iran would no doubt invade Iraq. The 150,000 US troops scattered across the country would be up against a wall, and an escalation to approximately 500,000 combat troops would be necessary. The problem is that the US does not have that many fit for duty units...so...hello selective service.
If this scenario were to happen it is certain that suicide bombers would find their way to the streets of major American cities. It would be a severe psychological blow to a population that is used to seeing war only through a TV screen, and not as a daily reality.
Oil prices would sky rocket if such a regional conflict were to take place, most likely leading to a global economic crisis. Particularly if oil wells are targeted (which they most certainly will be) the price of a barrel of oil could triple (not to mention the environmental tragedy).
So how realistic is this scenario? Put it this way, we have already dispatched an additional carrier group to the region, the Iranian's have been preparing with war games, and uranium enrichment talks are falling apart. With this latest news regarding the capture of 15 British sailors, I would put the chances of conflict at about 40 / 60......and that is downright terrifying.
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