Days Until Opening Day 2009

Saturday, November 3, 2007

Just Some Quick Thoughts Today

The Yankees have opted to resign Abreu for another year and close to 16 million dollars. Sigh. I would be fine with resigning Abreu if he didn't cost us so much. As I wrote yesterday his numbers were actually slightly improved from 2006. But at that price we should be getting a known commodity, not a slump prone right fielder who is over priced and has poor range in right field. The real mistake here though is signing up Abreu before dealing with Rivera and Posada. They should have been the first two to get offers. Maybe they did and they are still in the renegotiation process, but still I'm starting to get a little worried about the front offices intentions here. If you want to go young then do it. Don't send mixed messages by signing a replacement player who could fall apart sooner rather than later. I may be wrong, Abreu could have a Posada like year in 2008, but I wouldn't bet 16 million on it.

The Yankees are not the only team making bad decisions this post season, case in point the Red Sox who exercised a 4 million dollar option on Tim Wakefield. This baffles me. They didn't trust his shoulder enough to let him pitch in the world series and yet here they are saying come on back for another season as a starter?! Sure, they aren't dropping the kind of cash on him that the Yankees are on Abreu, but still, Wakefield is 41 years old and only has one pitch. One pitch that is going to cost you a lot of runs if it isn't spot on. At least Abreu will be good for at least 80 RBI's next season, twenty of which will probably come off Wakefield if he even makes it out of May. It wont be as disastrous as a Brett Saberhagen was for the Sox or Carl Pavano was for the Yankees, but I still think its a stupid idea. If I were the Sox I would sooner sign Schilling (and that is coming from someone who hates Schilling), but most likely that wont happen.

Seattle will most likely say adios to former national Jose Guillen. Full disclosure, I have always kind of liked the guy for some reason and I even have his bobble head on my desk at work. His numbers are really pretty good this year:

.290 era
23 home runs
99 RBIs

This could just be posturing for a better contract, but I doubt that Seattle will give him the multi year deal he wants. That's actually a smart decision. At 31 years old I think that Guillen's career has peaked and he isn't going to get any better. If Seattle wants to avoid blowing the wild card race like they did this year they would be wise to dump what will quickly become mediocre talent like Guillen.

5 comments:

Unknown said...

Okay, I can't let this one slip by unchallenged.

Bobby Abreu's contract is FOUR TIMES that of Wakefield. I'm sorry, but you just can't compare the two. Worse yet, how can you have the audacity to call Abreu's a better contract?! Wakefield's contract has been called the most lopsided in baseball -- in the ownership's favor.

Wakefield is not as bad as you portray him, not by a long shot. So they had to shut him down. He pitched 189 innings this year, pretty darn good. Only Wang and Pettitte had more IP on the Yankees. Also, you don't need 5 starters in the playoffs, so it wasn't a big deal. Besides, I can think of much, MUCH, MUCH more costly investments that were shut down for the playoffs this year, ahem.

Yes, OF COURSE he has one pitch and he is 41. Come on Bruce, you know better than to make this argument. He's a friggin' knuckleballer! Knuckleballers can pitch a lot longer than normal pitchers. Check out the career numbers of Charlie Hough, the Niekros, and Hoyt Wilhelm. All pitched well into their 40s, and pitched effectively. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wakefield's $4 million contract make an appearance in 2010.

Lastly, the Sox aren't counting on Wakefield to be more than a fifth starter. Wakefield's ERA+ this season was 100. That means that when you take into account ballpark factors, etc., his season fell right smack in the exact middle of all pitchers. Pretty good for a fifth starter. When you look at some of the money the Yankees have invested trying to get a fifth starter (Pavano, Contreras, Vasquez) in recent years, how can you criticize a signing for so much less?

Damn.

Bruce said...

"Worse yet, how can you have the audacity to call Abreu's a better contract?!"

Did you read this post? I never said that nor was trying to imply that at all. I am saying that they are both bad moves. Wakefield is old and is having a lot of health is issues, but I also qualified my statments by saying "Sure, they aren't dropping the kind of cash on him that the Yankees are on Abreu." How do you get that I think Abreu was a better contract than Wakefield? I do think that there is a higher probibility that Abreu will have a relatively better season, but again I'm not saying one move was smarter that the other, or one contract is more valuable. If anything I think the Sox are throwing away four million, but at least it isn't 16 million. They are both mistakes.

At the same time I would be willing to bet you that Wakefiled doesn't touch a mound in 2009 much less 2010

Julie said...

Okay- I think that I have settled down enough after reading the past comments from other posts.

Anyway- I for one was so excited when we first signed Abreu, but I do have to say that he makes too much money. But what the hell do I know.

Also- In my opinion the Red Sox did not put Wakefield on the Series roster because his shoulder was hurt and what the fuck is the use of having a one pitch wonder on your roster with a hurt pitching arm. Right?

Damnit Matt Ryan just gave up an interception and I just lost my train of thought.

Oh well, you get my point right?

Unknown said...

It was a minor shoulder injury. It did not require surgery. Four million is not a lot of money.

Check out these "one-pitch wonders" at age 42 and tell me you wouldn't spend 2.5% (literally) of your teams payroll to get the results below.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/houghch01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wilheho01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/niekrph01.shtml

Look at those stats at age 42 (and higher), and tell me again why they would be "throwing their money away" on a "bad contract".

And be saying "At least Abreu will be good for at least 80 RBI's next season, twenty of which will probably come off Wakefield if he even makes it out of May.", you are implying that Abreu has the better contract.

One last stat line to look into.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/saberbr01.shtml

Granted, $4 million a year had a little bit more value back 7 years ago (it would be like $6 million a year today, IMO), but I still wouldn't call it an awful contract. In his two healthy years he was actually pretty good.

Bruce said...

It we got Abreu for 7 million then I would say it was a better contract. I'm saying Abreu has better long term potential for the season than Wakefield does, but we are overpaying him by a lot. But comparing a knuckleballer to a right fielder is almost like apples and oranges.