Enough Already, Just End This Damn War

Democrats are pushing forward with plans to include a withdrawal time line in the supplemental war funding bill despite a guaranteed veto threat from the president. Will the timetable stand, no, of course not. But the fact that the republicans have decided to not change the language of the bill speaks volumes to the confidence that bush's own party has in his leadership and his prosecution of the war. It also is a clear indication that they are ready to sacrifice the President to the inevitable public outcry.

Realistically though, the point of this whole exercise is purely political. Pelosi and Ried know that despite all the rhetoric they can't cut funds to the troops without major public backlash, so they at the very least must make it LOOK like they are doing something to end the war and hold the administration accountable. This bothers me. Anyone who knows me (or who as read this blog) is well aware of my political leanings and also knows that anything that makes bush look bad is like music to my ears. But ending the war is about ending needless death, reckless spending, and restoring credibility to our country's reputation. A political chess match is not what we need, we need real solutions to end this nightmare and not symbolic politics.

British Sailors To Be "Pardoned"

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he has pardoned the 15 British sailors and marines detained last month and will set them free. It was just a matter of time before this happened. The big question is was the capture just a few over zealous Iranian sailors, or was it a high level decision.

I tend to think that it was a little of both. I can't believe that the Iranian government would purposely provoke this type of diplomatic crisis. They know that they would have little to gain on the world stage. I think that the decision to hold the British sailors was more of a face saving / PR idea with the intent to come across as victims of western aggression. To that extent, at least in the eyes of many in the Arab world I think that it worked. There is no question that the "confessions" of the 15 detainees was coerced, but in the eyes of Joe Arab it probably seemed equal to what Joe America would think if we saw a Guantanamo detainee confessing. Unfortunately our President played along with this by opening his mouth when he shouldn't have.

Looking back this situation could have ended off a lot worse than it did, but even still it is yet another example of the dangerous cat and mouse game that the US and Britain are playing with Iran. In the war of Arabic public relations we always stand to lose.

Do You Have The Time (Line)?

Surprisingly it looks like the spending bill on the war in Iraq will make it through with the time line in place. True to form Dubya has promised to veto anything that forces him to admit that Iraq is a never ending quagmire.

"President Bush accused congressional Democrats Wednesday of meddling in Iraq war policy and setting a deadline for a U.S. pullout that would have disastrous repercussions for both countries."

Please. Bush has no credibility to accuse anyone of creating a disastrous situation in Iraq. That responsibility lies solely with him. Congress has a responsibility to monitor and distribute tax payer money, they are not meddling, they are doing what they should have done years ago. No one in their right mind would keep paying for a plumber if he couldn't fix a leak, so why should tax payers keep paying for a foreign civil war that has destroyed America's military, popularity in the world, and made us less safe at home? Democrats (and a few republicans) have insisted that if Bush wants the money he is going to have to accept compromise and a time line. This of course prompted Bush's usual "they don't support the troops" rally cry which seems to finally be falling on deaf ears.

"Why doesn't he get real with what's going on with the world?" Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, said after Bush's speech. "We're not holding up funding in Iraq and he knows that. Why doesn't he deal with the real issues facing the American people?"

Clearly he doesn't deal with the real issues facing the American people because that is not whose best interests he is concerned with, he is more concerned with his own. The election of 2006 was a mandate for Democrats. They won by listening to Americans and promised more oversight with regard to the war. Now they are actually living up to that promise, but Bush simply does not want to believe that he is wrong. He is.

There is no question that this war is a disaster and was a huge waste of life and treasure, it's nice to see that Congress finally has the juevos to says enough is enough. There is no way the bill can survive a veto, but at least it is a step in the right direction.

What Would War With Iran Look Like

In short, it would be a disaster. Unfortunately unless the current political climate cools we are quickly heading in that direction. This wouldn’t be the type of conflict we have grown accustomed to over the past two decades. Casualties would be severe, acts of terror would sky rocket, and a draft would be all but certain. A war with Iran wouldn’t just be us against them either, it would quickly escalate into a regional conflict that would no doubt involve Israel, Syria, and possibly Saudi Arabia. It would be a no win situation for the United States. The aftermath of such a conflict would destroy what's left of our credibility in the Middle East for generations, and Osama Bin Laden would be completely justified in the eyes of the Arab world.

Analysts agree that if a conflict with Iran becomes a reality the US and Israel would launch a massive air campaign dwarfing any bombardment in the Iraqi and Afghanistan wars. The first targets would no doubt be nuclear facilities, although US intelligence is terrible on where and or how deep these installations are. No doubt this would lead to huge civilian casualties which would embolden the Iranian population to fight. Iranian defense planners have stated publicly that they have learned from the cases of neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. They are acutely aware of the U.S. military’s heavy reliance on aerial strikes and have planned accordingly for just such an attack. And unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran does have a competent Air Force.

Israels conflict with Lebanon last summer was a preview of the type of rocket melees we could expect. This time we wouldn't be talking about Hamas and their home made rockets though, we would be talking about return fire from highly sophisticated Iranian rockets that would not only be raining on Tel Aviv, but also on the Green Zone in Baghdad. It is not out of the question that some of the Israeli return fire rockets could be tipped with tactical nuclear missiles, especially if Israel is on the brink of collapse.

While US forces would most likely not initially invade Iranian territory, Iran would no doubt invade Iraq. The 150,000 US troops scattered across the country would be up against a wall, and an escalation to approximately 500,000 combat troops would be necessary. The problem is that the US does not have that many fit for duty units...so...hello selective service.

If this scenario were to happen it is certain that suicide bombers would find their way to the streets of major American cities. It would be a severe psychological blow to a population that is used to seeing war only through a TV screen, and not as a daily reality.

Oil prices would sky rocket if such a regional conflict were to take place, most likely leading to a global economic crisis. Particularly if oil wells are targeted (which they most certainly will be) the price of a barrel of oil could triple (not to mention the environmental tragedy).

So how realistic is this scenario? Put it this way, we have already dispatched an additional carrier group to the region, the Iranian's have been preparing with war games, and uranium enrichment talks are falling apart. With this latest news regarding the capture of 15 British sailors, I would put the chances of conflict at about 40 / 60......and that is downright terrifying.